Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.564778 14.379305 16.333456 18.590713 21.122358 23.870200 27.074472
2025-06-01 9.841328 12.289391 15.130331 18.655664 22.896536 27.816613 33.938474
2025-06-08 8.305668 10.976675 14.229164 18.453168 23.762559 30.181145 38.490208
2025-06-15 7.280444 10.121639 13.732380 18.613045 24.986617 32.969841 43.659931
2025-06-22 6.647487 9.652089 13.612222 19.149336 26.615316 36.246603 49.508648
2025-06-29 5.871249 8.888214 13.005506 18.949911 27.209953 38.162909 53.640500
2025-07-06 5.002553 7.891157 11.970201 18.046082 26.737929 38.571883 55.712600
2025-07-13 4.662621 7.618332 11.915240 18.486759 28.120021 41.527962 61.350777
2025-07-20 4.340172 7.334040 11.808503 18.824502 29.348187 44.300422 66.832246
2025-07-27 3.957857 6.916090 11.460413 18.763643 29.967746 46.210189 71.144341
2025-08-03 3.583629 6.472507 11.031489 18.536421 30.304265 47.698297 74.880207
2025-08-10 3.303507 6.155436 10.771470 18.542759 30.978110 49.691598 79.419088
2025-08-17 3.081364 5.921903 10.635998 18.749444 31.992680 52.273264 85.006940
2025-08-24 2.838452 5.629149 10.379229 18.738108 32.655821 54.343651 89.905950
2025-08-31 2.593327 5.306674 10.042630 18.561396 33.025073 55.950916 94.126451
2025-09-07 2.426635 5.111873 9.908784 18.712729 33.929881 58.426991 99.792623
2025-09-14 2.334536 5.048994 10.000770 19.254946 35.507913 62.036741 107.392507
2025-09-21 2.142406 4.772783 9.685254 19.053371 35.801234 63.559518 111.671807
2025-09-28 1.874855 4.318692 9.004861 18.145519 34.812683 62.909519 112.350437
2025-10-05 1.802776 4.258367 9.061113 18.588220 36.216567 66.308577 119.853666
2025-10-12 1.723033 4.174089 9.063818 18.927665 37.446791 69.454147 127.037465
2025-10-19 1.604106 3.993691 8.863691 18.866492 37.941378 71.348496 132.157487
2025-10-26 1.477499 3.783569 8.587523 18.638163 38.110577 72.674726 136.338704